Happ beats Halladay as Astros edge struggling Phillies

Baseball Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Humberto Quintero's RBI single in the seventh inning helped J.A. Happ upend his former teammates, as Houston took another slim 3-2 victory over Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park.

Happ (4-2), who was traded by the Phillies along with two prospects to Houston in exchange for Roy Oswalt prior to the trade deadline, yielded just two runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings for the Astros, who have won the first three meetings in the four-game set.

Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn each hit a solo homer for the victors.

Roy Halladay (16-9) had a personal six-start win streak snapped, as the right- handed ace was touched for three runs in seven frames for the Phils, who stayed 2 1/2 games behind the Braves in the National League East race.

Both starters pitched into the seventh, a much-needed rest for both bullpens after Tuesday's grueling 16-inning marathon that Houston pulled out, 4-2.

Neither team recorded a hit until Pence crushed a 2-0 fastball into the seats in left-center with two outs in the fourth, breaking Halladay's scoreless stretch at 19 innings.

The Phillies' first hit was also a solo blast, as Jayson Werth took Happ deep over the wall in left leading off the fifth.

Bourn got into the act in the sixth with a solo shot to right for just his second home run of the year and first since June 28.

Halladay made up for the mistake with a leadoff single in the bottom half and went to second on a one-out single by Shane Victorino. Placido Polanco then lined a double over Carlos Lee's head in left to plate Halladay.

Both Victorino and Polanco were stranded, though, and the Astros took the lead again in the seventh, as Chris Johnson doubled with one away and came in two batters later on Quintero's bloop single to left.

Philadelphia threatened in the bottom half, but with two on and one out, Raul Ibanez, pinch-hitting for Halladay, flew out to center against Tim Byrdak. Then, with Mark Melancon on the hill, Quintero threw behind Ben Francisco at third. The runner stepped on Johnson's foot at the bag then stepped off and was tagged out for the unorthodox pickoff.

Brandon Lyon hurled a 1-2-3 eighth, then struck out the side in the ninth around Ryan Howard's two-out, pinch-hit single to pick up his eighth save of the season.

Despite the loss, the Phillies stayed atop the NL Wild Card race with the Giants, who lost an extra-inning game to Cincinnati earlier Wednesday.

Game Notes

The Astros announced pitcher Brian Moehler, sidelined since early July, will have surgery to repair a muscle in his lower abdomen that will end his 2010 season...Halladay had pitched to a 1.37 earned run average over his win streak.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

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