Soto's homer in eighth lifts Cubs past Astros

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geovany Soto's two-out homer in the eighth proved to be the difference, as the Chicago Cubs opened a three-game series against the Houston Astros with a 5-4 victory at Wrigley Field.

Soto launched his 17th home run of the season and the 10th go-ahead shot of his career, as the Cubs improved to 9-4 under interim manager Mike Quade. Marlon Byrd added a two-run shot, while Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt each drove in a run in the win.

Casey Coleman allowed four runs, eight hits and five walks in a six-inning start, and Andrew Cashner (2-5) earned the win for a scoreless eighth inning. Carlos Marmol notched his 28th save with a perfect ninth.

Chris Johnson homered for the Astros, who came into this series with 11 wins in their last 14 games. Michael Bourn added two hits and two walks, while Jeff Keppinger and Hunter Pence each drove in a run.

Wandy Rodriguez wasn't involved in the decision after yielding four runs and eight hits while walking one and fanning six in seven innings. Wilton Lopez (5-2) gave up Soto's homer to take the loss.

After Cashner retired the Astros in order to keep the game tied heading to the bottom of the eighth, Soto launched a pitch out of the stadium and onto the streets of Chicago beyond left-center for a 5-4 Cubs lead.

Marmol closed out the game by retiring Bourn, Keppinger and Pence in order.

Houston jumped on top early with a four-run second inning.

Johnson began the inning with his seventh homer, and Matt Downs drew a one-out walk. Jason Castro followed with a base hit that left runners on second and third after Alfonso Soriano's error in left.

Rodriguez flied out, but Downs scored and Castro went to third on a wild pitch. Bourn walked to put runners on the corners, and Keppinger and Pence followed with back-to-back RBI singles to put the Astros ahead, 4-0.

The Cubs answered with three runs in the third and one in the fifth to tie the game.

Darwin Barney started the third with a single and moved to second when Rodriguez uncorked a wild pitch with two outs. DeWitt plated Barney with an infield single, and Byrd launched a two-run homer to left for a 4-3 contest.

Another base hit from Barney began the fifth, and two batters later, Baker's RBI double tied the game.

Game Notes

The Astros still lead the season series, 8-5...The Cubs recorded nine hits, the first time they had under 10 in eight games...Chicago has won four of five overall.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.